Uncertainty – Expectations and Fundamentals: Whatever Happened to Long-Term Oil Prices?

Oxford Institute of Energy Studies
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Uncertainty – Expectations and Fundamentals: Whatever Happened to Long-Term Oil Prices?  

 

One of the major features of the oil market during the 1990s was the relative stability of the long-term oil price. While the spot price and the price of near-term futures contracts sometimes exhibited sharp price volatility that volatility was only partially transmitted to the back end of the futures curve which was anchored around the $20-22/barrel range. However as oil prices rose sharply during the boom years the consensus on the oil price that would balance the long term fundamentals of the oil market broke down and the whole futures curve became subject to a series of shifts. http://www.oxfordprospect.co.uk/Oxford-Institute-of-Energy-Studies.html

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